SO WHY wasn’t Nagorna-Karabakh seen as similar to Abkhazia, which Russia defended in the 2008 war with Georgia? Why wasn’t it like the Donbass and Crimea, which Russia has defended, and in the second case annexed, in 2014? It’s not even like Transnistria, apparently. To understand why is to try to understand Russia’s current geopolitical stance. Moscow sees the Caucasus as part of its historic sphere of influence, but it apparently did not see Azerbaijan’s war as harming that influence. It believes that it can broker a deal with peacekeepers and remain the key player, with Baku and Yerevan relying on it. Russia has in the past balked at countries in its sphere seeking out Western support. When the war broke out in September, many experts said that Moscow was displeased with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Moscow remembered that he had come to power after the “Velvet Revolution” of 2018, and that he was critical of Moscow’s role in Armenia. In short, he had said in the past, according to reports, that Armenia was treated as a kind of vassal, a relationship with Moscow of “speaker and listener” – and Armenia was supposed to listen. He also reportedly opposed Armenia’s role in the Eurasian Economic Union, an economic pact led by Russia and including Belarus and Kazakhstan, believing that Armenia’s sovereignty was being eroded. However, Armenia was not in a position to make many changes. Sandwiched between a hostile Turkey and Azerbaijan – and with an Iran that is not helpful and also under sanctions, and a Georgia that was not deeply supportive – the country had no real options. It couldn’t rely on the West because the era of Western expansion was over. The US no longer cared about protecting countries like Armenia. And Turkey, although it is hostile to the US, is a NATO member – and Armenia wasn’t going to grow closer to NATO with such a hostile neighbor and Azerbaijan seeking a closer relationship with the US and NATO.As such, Armenia was not only forced to be dependent on Russia but there was a powerful group of people deployed by Turkey to cheerlead a war against Armenia and pretend that it was actually a war that would harm Russia and Iran’s interests. Armenia was forced into the tragic position, by voices in the US close to the Trump administration, of being sacrificed as the last hurrah in a policy designed to appease Turkey and confront Iran by destroying the lives of a few thousand Armenians.
BUT RUSSIA didn’t buy into this. Moscow believed its role in the end was to swoop in and treat the squabbling countries like children. It saw this as a kind of police action. Russia has done this before in Syria and Libya: It moves in and appears to end the fighting and creates a tenuous cold peace or frozen conflict. It did this as the Trump administration created chaos in eastern Syria through a withdrawal in October 2019. That Trump decision was also pushed by the same pro-Ankara voices in Washington claiming that the Syrian Democratic Forces – US partners in eastern Syria who defeated ISIS – were somehow a leftover from the Obama administration’s pro-Iran policy. As the Armenians were forced to pay the price for a mythical link to Iran, so the Kurds were also sacrificed. Russia doesn’t see the region this way; it didn’t view the defeat of Armenia’s fighters in Artsakh as a setback. It did appear to hope to teach Yerevan a lesson: Depend on Moscow and listen to us, or more of this will happen. Armenia’s army proved woefully incapable of confronting Baku’s modern army which is festooned with drones, some supplied from Israel and others from Turkey. This should be humiliating for Russia’s arms industry, that it couldn’t supply Armenia the right weapons. But Moscow has proven cynical in this respect before, enabling Turkey to punish Assad’s forces in February 2020, before Russia swooped into areas near Aleppo and Idlib to stop the fighting. This is the Russian model.
PUTIN HAS old memories of the humiliation of Serbia in the Balkan Wars of the 1990s. He has vowed to remake Russia as a massive power and project strength amid the chaos unleashed by US withdrawal from areas in the world and Trump’s isolationism. However, that comes at a cost. Moscow is willing to let some areas of countries be sacrificed, for what it sees as the greater good. That is why airstrikes can hunt down Iranian elements in southern Syria while Moscow claimed it would send S-300s to Syria in 2018. Moscow believes in the long game. That game is consistent, reliable foreign policy based on a Clausewitz model of policy following military affairs. It believes in energy as a weapon of policy and foreign military sales. For Moscow, Turkey is a bigger prize than Armenia. Ankara is moving toward the authoritarian alliance of Tehran, Moscow and Beijing, and that is the bigger goal. Russia wants to weaken Europe more than it is already weakened and encourage US isolationism. And if getting there means a few thousand people fled Nagorna-Karabakh and now Armenia is even more dependent on Moscow, then Russia thinks it has won. After all, there are no more humiliations like the Kosovo War and the battle for Grozny in the 1990s. Now Russia can wait; time is on its side, it thinks.Did it make a mistake in waiting too long and no enforcing a ceasefire in October with Armenia and Azerbaijan? It appears that it may think that it is the senior partner with Turkey but that Ankara’s ambitions are larger and that it may find that constantly coddling Ankara has enabled Turkey to do the same to Russia as it did with the US: run circles around them while pretending to be friends to both. The problem is that Moscow and Washington compete for Ankara’s affections while Turkey views itself as an equal to both. This is the trouble that Moscow got itself in now in the Caucasus. It thinks it won by weakening Armenia. But in the long run, it may not see that it lost a bit of prestige by not standing by Yerevan. Russia prefers its partners to be weak and subservient. That is why the Donbass republics, poor and incapable, like Abkhazia and other areas, are preferred. But that does not add to Russia’s strength; it means it has to prop up a bunch of poor countries. Turkey has preferred a strong Azerbaijan, while Russia preferred a weak Armenia. Time will tell if Russia played this conflict right.