The United States is seeking permission to deploy drones and special forces in countries bordering Afghanistan, as its most senior regional commander said that the Kabul army would collapse in the face of the “Taliban” movement without continued American support. The statements of the Commander of the US Central Command, General Frank MacKenzie, before the Senate Armed Services Committee, after President Joe Biden announced the complete withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan by September, without conditions such as an agreement with the Taliban for a ceasefire, or obtaining a commitment. Clearly from the movement by not providing shelter to Al Qaeda.
According to US estimates, the Taliban, which includes about 60,000 fighters, is stronger than at any time since 2001. “I am concerned about the Afghan army’s ability to withstand after we left, and the ability of the Afghan air force to fly, on the face of it,” MacKenzie said. Concern, after we lift the support for those aircraft ».
Peace talks between the Taliban and the government of President Ashraf Ghani have been pending, and it is not clear what arrangements will satisfy Kabul and the movement with regard to ending the armed rebellion. And diplomatic efforts are underway at the moment to persuade neighboring countries to host a new counterterrorism force “across the horizon.” Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are the most strategically suited, but this task poses diplomatic challenges.
Pressure
The United States had used two bases in Central Asia on the border with Afghanistan to support its forces during the war: in Karshi Khanabad in Uzbekistan, and Manas in Kyrgyzstan. However, the two former Soviet countries will come under pressure from Beijing and Moscow to reject any move by the United States to update these rules to host the anti-terror force.
“It is difficult to see how we can maintain such a force in the region with high confidence that we will reach it,” said a former senior US Defense Department official (Pentagon). It is not clear that the Pakistanis will agree, and it is certain that the Chinese, with their growing economic interests in Afghanistan, will not encourage Pakistan to help us. In fact, one of the very important points that was ignored in the American withdrawal is the loss of a major base of operations that was serving our competition. Growing with China. We provide a great service to Beijing in Afghanistan, as well as to (the Taliban). ”
McKinsey, who had advised against a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, indicated that he wanted a base to strike terrorist targets in the country with long-range precision fire, special operations raids, combat aircraft and drones. He told Congress that hunting down targets in Afghanistan after the departure of US forces would also require “intense intelligence support”, and that it would be difficult, but not impossible, to launch an operation.
He said he was concerned about the ability of the Afghan air force to fly after the Americans stopped supporting their aircraft. The Afghan air force owns 34 “combat-capable” aircraft and five attack helicopters, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Much of the force’s maintenance is being carried out by contractors funded by the Pentagon, but under the withdrawal timetable, 17,000 defense contractors in Afghanistan – about a third of them Americans – will also leave.
The general also said that he expected the force to be ready and “on its feet.” This would indicate an American naval presence in the Arabian Sea, 300 miles south of Afghanistan, on a more permanent basis.
Under current arrangements, it takes only minutes to send an armed Reaper UAV from Kandahar and other US drone bases in Afghanistan to strike a terrorist target. By comparison, MacKenzie says that once the troops leave the country, it will take “more than four hours” to move armed drones or other aircraft in and out of Afghanistan. In a briefing to reporters, he said that he was studying ways to help the Afghan air force by holding video conferences with Afghan law enforcement forces. “The planes require daily maintenance,” he said, adding that despite the effectiveness of the Afghan air force, keeping the planes in the air would be more difficult. The Pentagon will still pay $ 4 billion annually to the Afghan army to support its efforts, and pay the salaries of soldiers. “If we don’t provide some support, they will definitely collapse,” MacKenzie said.
High frequency of attacks
The frequency of Taliban attacks is more high than it has been over the past 20 years, with between 30 and 50 Afghan soldiers and police dying in combat every day. “I think the Afghan army will fight, but I can’t anticipate the future,” MacKenzie said. “I don’t know how things will end, but we will definitely do everything we can to help our Afghan partners after we leave.”
MacKenzie was among the top generals who advised Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin not to withdraw completely from Afghanistan. Thus the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley and Austin, advised the Biden administration to leave a counterterrorism force in support of the Kabul government as the remaining 2,500 American troops leave. And when the administration rejected this advice, the Pentagon, with the help of Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, began laying out plans for a second, better option – deploying an “over the horizon” counterterrorism force to a country near Afghanistan.
The frequency of Taliban attacks is more high than it has been over the past 20 years, with between 30 and 50 Afghan soldiers and police dying in combat every day.
Frank Mackenzie wants a base to strike terrorist targets in the country with long-range precision fire, special operations raids, fighter jets, and drones.
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